Heard · Jordan Usdan Campaign Intelligence (v6)

296

Total responses

28 zip codes

196

Organic voices

After weighting

Issue categories

Heard taxonomy

Cost-of-living signals

Cross-category

Mobilization flag

Apr 22 · see §6

1 · Weighted issue priority

What voters are actually prioritizing after coordination adjustment

The Heard category structure is preserved. Only Public Safety changes after the April 22 cluster is weighted as one organized voice. Affordability, Jobs, and Government That Listens are more durable lanes than the raw counts suggest.

Weighted is the campaign default

Affordable Housing

WEIGHTED 40

RAW 40

Public Safety

WEIGHTED ~40

RAW 140

Jobs & Opportunity

WEIGHTED 40

RAW 40

Government That Listens

WEIGHTED 41

RAW 41

Other (cost-of-living)

WEIGHTED 35

RAW 35

2 · Message opportunity matrix

What to lead with, what to handle, what to acknowledge

Five message lanes ranked by breadth of appeal × intensity of voter pain. Each lane has a clear strategic role.

Lane	Broad appeal	Intensity	Campaign use
Affordability	High	High	Core message. Crosses every category. Bridges D, Independent, and some R voters via household economics.
Government responsiveness	High	Medium	Trust-builder. Operational promise — callbacks, hybrid access, follow-through. Heard itself is the proof.
Housing supply & zoning	Medium	High	Persuasion lane for younger / pro-growth voters. Cannot be the citywide message — alienates anti-density and equity-focused audiences.
Public safety enforcement & competence	Medium	High	Cross-pressure issue. Frame as competence and faster response — bridges Lean R staffing concerns and Strong D unsolved-violence concerns.
Gun-safety mobilization	Narrower after weighting	High	Acknowledge, do not lead. Real organized voice but ~2 organic ban-supporters in the dataset. Engaging at scale risks signaling that organized advocacy sets priorities.

3 · Issue × voter segment · pivot

Pivot the data yourself

Pick what to put on rows, columns, and inside each cell. Toggle the April 22 weighting to see how the coordinated cluster distorts raw counts. Cell color shows deviation from expected if engagement were uniform across segments — green is over-engagement, red is under.

Updates live

Row values

Column values

Cell shows

Filters:

Weight Apr 22 cluster as 1 voice

Analyzing 196 of 296 inputs

Cell color: deviation from expected

Lower Expected Higher

Affected by Apr 22 cluster Notable signal Thin sample (n < 10)

4 · Geographic concentration

Where themes cluster by zip code

Top 12 zips by organic response count, with category breakdown and dominant frame. Excludes the April 22 cluster.

Zip	Housing	Public Safety	Jobs	Gov listens	Other	Total	Dominant frame
15206 East Liberty	4	5	3	4	3	19	Gentrification tension, downtown vacancy, growth
15208 Homewood	3	7	1	5	2	18	Anti-displacement, prevention, unsolved violence
15201 Lawrenceville	2	3	5	6	2	18	Tech, supply-side housing, civic responsiveness
15224 Bloomfield	4	2	4	3	4	17	Mixed urban concerns, affordability
15217 Squirrel Hill	2	4	4	4	3	17	Tree of Life context, supply zoning, reform safety
15212 North Side	1	3	2	3	3	12	Working-class concerns, transit, public services
15235 Penn Hills	1	3	2	2	4	12	Cost-of-living, suburban transit, school costs
15226 Mt Lebanon-adj	1	1	2	4	2	10	Property tax, fixed income, civic competence
15213 Oakland / CMU	2	2	4	1	0	9	Tech ecosystem, talent retention, growth
15102 Bethel Park	0	2	2	2	1	7	Trades, suburban services, civic personal contact
15090 Wexford	2	1	2	1	1	7	Anti-density, taxes, civics, R-leaning suburb
15210 South Side Slopes	2	1	1	1	2	7	Slumlord enforcement, displacement

Zips that punch above their weight: 15208 (Homewood) is 6% of organic responses but generates ~28% of anti-displacement and prevention-focused safety content. 15217 (Squirrel Hill) is the only zip producing Tree-of-Life-grounded public-safety voice. 15226 / 15090 / 15229 are the strongest concentrations of Lean R and senior-tax pressure. These zips warrant in-person listening sessions, not surveys.

5 · Response timing & mobilization scan

Daily volume across April 2026

Background daily volume runs 3–12 responses. April 22 spikes to 112 responses (100 from a single coordinated push, 12 organic) — a clear signature of an external advocacy mobilization.

112

Apr 1

Apr 22

Apr 30

Organic responses Coordinated cluster (Apr 22, 7:00–9:30pm)

6 · Data quality & mobilization scan

One organized push, transparently weighted

All five categories were scanned for temporal, textual, and demographic clustering. One coordinated cluster was detected — in Public Safety, on April 22. The other four categories show no clustering above threshold.

Methodological note · not the headline

What happened. Between 7:09pm and 9:27pm on April 22, 100 responses arrived advocating an assault-weapons ban. 62 used one of four verbatim Moms-Demand-Action-style templates; 75 of the 100 landed in a 30-minute spike. Cluster respondents are 80% D-leaning and 67% female. We preserve every response as real input from real voters, but weight the cluster as one organized voice for priority-setting. Outside the cluster, ~2 organic responses explicitly endorse the cluster's specific ban policy; ~5–7 organic responses raise gun-related concerns from various angles.

Temporal

100 responses in 138 minutes vs. background of max 2 per 60-min window in any other category.

Textual

4 verbatim templates with 25, 15, 12, and 10 reuses. No other category has any template ≥5 reuses.

Demographic

80% D-leaning, 67% female, 0% Lean/Strong R. Profile matches an MDA-style action-alert push.

Template evidence and representative voices

25× verbatim: "I am writing to demand action on assault weapons. We need a federal assault weapons ban, an end to high-capacity magazines…"
15× verbatim: "Sandy Hook. Parkland. Uvalde. Buffalo. Pulse. Tree of Life. El Paso. Las Vegas. How many more children, neighbors…"
12× verbatim: "Nobody needs an AR-15 to hunt. Nobody needs an AR-15 to defend their home…"
10× verbatim: "Ban assault weapons. End high capacity magazines. Pass universal background checks. Red flag laws. Now."
7× near-template with town name varied (Pittsburgh, Shadyside, Cranberry, Upper St. Clair…)

"I support red flag laws, universal background checks, and a ban on assault weapons. The 2nd amendment is not a suicide pact."

R0267 · Strong D · 45–64 · White · F · 15217 · Organic ban-supporter

"guns dont kill people criminals do. Pittsburgh has plenty of laws on the books that arent enforced."

R0142 · Strong R · 45–64 · White · M · 15101 · Organic counter-voice

"I lost my brother to gun violence in 2017. The killer was never caught. Cold cases in Black neighborhoods don't get the attention they deserve."

R0279 · Strong D · 30–44 · Black · F · 15208 · Organic, broader concern

7 · Issue deep-dives

What voters said, by Heard category

Each category opens to reveal themes, demographic skews, representative quotes, and the within-category disagreement that matters for messaging.

Affordable Housing

40 responses · all organic · three audiences

Takeaway: Three incompatible audiences — supply reformers, anti-displacement advocates, and senior-tax-pressed homeowners. One housing message will alienate two of three. Run three conversations.

Supply, zoning reform, build-by-right

12 voices

Younger college-educated voters argue Pittsburgh's housing crisis is artificial — lift zoning, legalize ADUs, build by right.

Lean D · 30–44 · White / Asian · Graduate · 100–150k

Representative voices

"I support more permissive zoning. East Liberty went from a food desert to a real neighborhood because we let people build."

R0146 · Lean D · 30–44 · White · M · 15217

"Build by right. Stop letting one angry neighbor block a whole project."

R0121 · Lean D · 30–44 · White · M · 15201

Anti-displacement, slumlord enforcement, equity

14 voices

Black voters in East End neighborhoods frame housing as a fight against gentrification and absentee-landlord neglect.

Strong D / Lean D · Black · 15206 / 15208 / 15210 / 15219

Representative voices

"My family was redlined out of Schenley Heights in the 60s. Now they call it 'urban renewal' but it's the same thing."

R0041 · Strong D · 45–64 · Black · F · 15219

"affordable housing should be near jobs and transit not segregated to the worst neighborhoods. that's how we ended up with concentrated poverty."

R0092 · Strong D · 30–44 · Black · F · 15208

Property taxes, senior cost pressure

6 voices

Older homeowners on fixed incomes describe being taxed out of homes they have lived in for decades.

Lean R / Independent · 65+ · White · Under 50k

Representative voices

"I'm a senior on a fixed income and my school taxes alone are $4800/year and I don't have kids in school anymore."

R0258 · Independent · 65+ · White · F · 15229

Anti-density, character preservation

7 voices

Suburban homeowners defend single-family zoning, school district quality, and property values.

Strong R / Lean R / Independent · 45–64 · White · 100k+

Housing-first / homelessness

1 voice

A single Strong D voice frames homelessness as solvable via Houston / Salt Lake City models.

n=1 — directional only

Within-category disagreement: Supply-siders want fewer barriers; equity voices want enforcement and anti-displacement guarantees; suburban voices see density as a property-value threat.

Public Safety

140 raw · ~40 organic after Apr 22 weighting · multi-sided

Takeaway: After de-weighting the April 22 mobilization, the organic conversation splits between enforcement, accountability/reform, and prevention. Three sub-audiences need different messages. The "competence and faster response" frame is the bipartisan opener.

April 22 coordinated assault-weapons-ban push

100 raw → ~2 organic

See §6. Real position; signal weight is one organized voice, not 100 voters.

Enforcement, staffing, prosecution

14 voices

Voters describe slow response times, dropped cases, downtown decline. Framing is competence, not hard-right policing.

Lean R / Strong R / Independent · 45–64 · White

Representative voices

"Pittsburgh needs more police, not fewer. We are below the staffing levels of comparable cities. Of course we feel unsafe."

R0063 · Lean R · 45–64 · White · M · 15226

"the response time in homewood is a joke. it can take 30 minutes for police to show up to a real emergency."

R0032 · Lean D · 30–44 · Black · M · 15208

Police accountability, alternative response

11 voices

Body cameras, civilian review, contract reform, clinicians instead of cops for psychiatric calls.

Strong D / Lean D · 30–44 · racially diverse

Representative voices

"Mental health crises don't need cops with guns, they need clinicians."

R0255 · Strong D · 30–44 · White · F · 15217

"body cameras and citizen review boards. that is the minimum. police accountability is not anti-police its pro-good-policing."

R0045 · Lean D · 30–44 · Hispanic · F · 15206

Prevention, community investment

7 voices

Black voters in East End neighborhoods want violence interrupters, after-school programs, summer jobs.

Strong D · Black · 15208

Representative voice

"We need violence interrupters and community-based solutions, not more cops. Look at what worked in Oakland, in Chicago."

R0114 · Strong D · 30–44 · Black · M · 15208

Expanded definition of safety

8 voices

Traffic violence, antisemitism, domestic violence, opioid overdoses, drunk driving, infrastructure failure.

D / Independent · across demographics

Within-category disagreement: Right-leaning voters want prosecution and staffing; left-leaning voters split between accountability and prevention. Don't read the coordinated cluster as the organic center of the category.

Jobs & Opportunity

40 responses · all organic · household economics dominates

Takeaway: The organic Jobs conversation is mostly about household economics — wages, childcare, healthcare. Tech-hub aspiration exists but is the minority frame. Bridge to Lean R voters via trades, dignity-of-work.

Wages, benefits, household solvency

15 voices

Wages haven't kept up; childcare and healthcare are economic policy. Unions framed as why Pittsburgh used to have a middle class.

Strong D / Lean D · working / middle income · racially diverse

Representative voices

"the rent is too damn high and the wages are too damn low. that's it. that's the whole economic story for half this city."

R0144 · Strong D · 18–29 · Black · F · 15206

"affordable healthcare is an economic issue. people stay in jobs they hate because of insurance."

R0051 · Strong D · 30–44 · White · F · 15217

Tech, AI, eds-and-meds, talent retention

6 voices

Higher-income voters frame Pittsburgh as a CMU/Pitt/UPMC engine that loses talent to coastal cities.

Lean D / Independent · Graduate · Asian / White · 100k+

Representative voice

"Carnegie Mellon spits out world class talent and they leave for SF and seattle because there are no jobs here."

R0040 · Lean D · 30–44 · Asian · M · 15213

Inclusive growth, capital access

6 voices

Black-owned business capital, immigration as growth, workforce development for people already here.

Strong D · Black / Hispanic · across income

Representative voice

"Black-owned businesses cant get loans. We get studied to death and not funded."

R0073 · Strong D · 45–64 · Black · F · 15208

Trades, energy, business climate

6 voices

White male voters frame the economy through shale jobs, electrician wages, business taxes. Bridges to Lean D on dignity-of-work.

Lean R / Strong R / Independent · White · M · HS / Some college

Representative voice

"Trade school grad making $90k as an electrician. College grads making $45k. The college propaganda machine is broken."

R0130 · Lean R · 30–44 · White · M · 15102

Downtown, infrastructure, airport

3 voices

Fix airport access, fill empty downtown buildings, develop riverfronts.

Within-category disagreement: Left wants worker power; right wants lower taxes and trades; growth coalition wants tech without losing affordability. "Dignity of work" is the bipartisan handshake.

Government That Listens

41 responses · all organic · meta-signal for Heard

Takeaway: The bar is operational — callbacks, hybrid meetings, follow-up after listening sessions. Voters reward responsiveness even with disagreement. Heard itself can serve as the proof of operational competence.

Responsiveness: callbacks, follow-through

11 voices

Voters reward officials who actually respond — even with disagreement. The bar is shockingly low and the unmet demand is enormous.

Lean D / Independent · across demographics

Representative voices

"i emailed all 9 city council members about a proposal that affected my block. one wrote back. he didnt even agree with me but he wrote back. that meant something."

R0012 · Independent · 45–64 · White · M · 15203

"My state rep sent me a handwritten note when my mom died. That stuck with me. Most pols dont do that."

R0064 · Independent · 45–64 · White · M · 15102

Access barriers: meeting times, hybrid options

6 voices

Town halls at 2pm Wednesday exclude working people, parents, disabled voters, and young voters.

Lean D · lower income · working class

Representative voice

"Town halls happen at 2pm on a Wednesday. Working people cant come. The same retirees show up every time."

R0059 · Lean D · 30–44 · White · F · 15226

"Listening without action is performance"

7 voices

Voters reject performative listening — public comment with no follow-up, surveys that vanish.

D / Independent · across demographics

Representative voice

"We met with the housing department. They listened politely and did nothing. Listening without action is performance."

R0052 · Strong D · 30–44 · Black · F · 15224

Authority opacity: PWSA, URA, foundations, Harrisburg

8 voices

Voters target special-purpose authorities, foundation power, permitting, state preemption.

Politically diverse · across demographics

Representative voice

"PWSA is a black box. They dig up my street for 6 weeks, dont tell anyone why, and bill us for it."

R0042 · Independent · 45–64 · White · M · 15224

Distrust, civic infrastructure proposals

9 voices

Bipartisan distrust ("wake me up when that changes") plus constructive proposals (neighborhood councils, civics in schools, participatory budgeting).

Politically diverse

Within-category disagreement: Some praise individual responsive officials; others say the structure blocks accountability. The structural complaint is the more strategic one.

Other

35 responses · 17 cost-of-living · this is really an affordability category

Takeaway: "Other" is misnamed. It is overwhelmingly cost-of-living pain that the four explicit categories miss. Promote affordability to a dedicated category in the next listening round.

Cost-of-living pileup

17 voices

Childcare, groceries, utilities, internet, baby supplies, school supplies. Cumulative crush of every cost going up.

Lean D / Independent · women · 30–44 · 50–100k

Representative voices

"Childcare costs $1800 a month. My take home is $3400. The math doesnt work for working families."

R0001 · Lean D · 30–44 · Black · F · 15224

"I want to talk about affordability and nobody asks about it specifically. Its baked into housing, healthcare, jobs, but its its OWN issue."

R0088 · Lean D · 30–44 · Mixed · M · 15206

Healthcare, prescriptions, eldercare, dental

6 voices

Even-with-insurance bills, $80 insulin, $9000/month memory care, dental unobtainable on Medicaid.

D / Independent · across age

Representative voice

"my elderly mother needs more care than i can provide. memory care is $9000 a month. NINE THOUSAND."

R0265 · Independent · 45–64 · White · F · 15229

Retirement insecurity, fixed income

5 voices

Seniors describe inability to retire, widow's tax cliff, being trapped by tax burdens. Bridges to Affordable Housing senior-tax theme.

Independent / Lean R · 65+ · White · Under 50k

Transportation as affordability

5 voices

Bus routes that don't reach jobs; car ownership at $500/month; commutes that erase wage gains.

Independent · across demographics

Environment / democracy spillover

4 voices

Politically polarized — Strong D voters raise fracking, air quality, voting access; Strong R raises voter ID. Confirms these need their own categories.

Politically polarized

Within-category disagreement: Almost none. Other is unusually unified around cost-of-living pain.

8 · Cross-cutting threads

What jumps categories

Three threads run through every category and reveal more than any single issue does.

Affordability

Housing as rent and displacement (12). Jobs as wages and benefits (15). Other as cost-of-living crush (17). Plus utility complaints throughout Government That Listens. The single broadest message lane in the dataset.

R0001R0048R0088R0144R0252R0265

Distrust of institutions

Left distrusts captured systems and performative process (R0022, R0042, R0099). Right distrusts government broadly and zoning preemption (R0106, R0142). Independents distrust bureaucracy and rigged economics. Operational competence is the bipartisan opening.

R0022R0042R0106R0142R0145R0291

"Listens" as meta-signal

The formal Government That Listens category has 41 submissions, but the appetite for being heard spills into housing, safety, jobs, and cost-of-living. The winning frame is "we listened, acted, and reported back" — not "we held a meeting."

R0009R0052R0124R0263R0296

9 · Bipartisan openings

Where the spectrum agrees

All R-side claims rest on a thin sample (28 R-leaning of 296). Treat as directional and confirm with a targeted listening round.

R-side n=28 — directional

Affordability beats ideology

Lean D voters cite childcare, rent, wages (R0001, R0048, R0287). Lean R voters cite property taxes, groceries, retirement (R0252, R0265, R0258). Vocabulary differs; lived experience is identical.

Operational competence over rhetoric

Lean D / Independent reward callbacks (R0012, R0064). Lean R want civic knowledge restored (R0290). Both reject theater.

Safety as competence + prevention

Lean R wants staffing and prosecution (R0063). Strong D Black voters want faster response and justice (R0032, R0279). Both frame the city as failing operationally.

Dignity of work

Strong D voters talk unions (R0294). Lean R / Strong R talk trades, shale, business climate (R0130, R0286). Both reject an economy that leaves working people behind.

10 · Sample composition

What this sample can and cannot tell you

296 responses over April 1–30, 2026 across 28 zip codes, with comparison to public baselines.

Political lean

Strong D

38%

Lean D

34%

Independent

19%

Lean R

Strong R

County GOP vote share ≈ 38%. Both R groups under-represented.

Race

White

55%

Black

23%

Asian

Mixed

Hispanic

County baseline (2020 Census ~). Black, Asian, Hispanic over-represented.

Age bracket

18–29

30–44

41%

45–64

41%

65+

13%

18–29 under-represented at 6% — likely platform reach, not disinterest.

Subgroups where n < 10 — directional only: Strong R (n=9), 18–29 (n=17), Hispanic (n=18), Lean R (n=19), Mixed (n=20), Nonbinary (n=8). All findings broken out by these subgroups need a follow-up listening round before campaign decisions rest on them.

11 · Methodology

How findings were produced

Full disclosure of thresholds, sources, and analytical decisions.

Coordination detection thresholds

Temporal: a category is flagged when more than 20 responses arrive within any 60-minute window. Only Public Safety triggered.
Textual: a category is flagged when 5+ responses share an identical 100-character prefix. Only Public Safety triggered, with 4 distinct templates.
Demographic: a candidate cluster is flagged when 80%+ share political_lean grouping AND 60%+ share gender or age bracket. April 22 cluster meets both.
All three signals together fire only on the April 22 Public Safety cluster.

Quote sourcing and verification

Every quote is verbatim from the comment-body column. Each quote is attributed to the response ID where it appears. Demographic captions read directly from the corresponding row. All quoted IDs verified against the source CSV before publication.

What was cross-tabbed

category × {political_lean, age, race, gender, income} (the interactive pivot in §3)
themes within each category × political_lean × race × age (where the sample supported it)
zip code × category (the geographic table)
cluster demographics (gender × age × political_lean × race)
daily volume (the timeline)

What was not cross-tabbed

education × category (sample sizes within education brackets too thin)
income × theme (similar)
day-of-week or hour-of-day patterns outside the April 22 cluster

Analytical decisions affecting interpretation

April 22 cluster identification used pre-defined thresholds, not subjective judgment.
"Independent voices on gun-related concerns" estimated by keyword scan over organic Public Safety responses with manual classification.
Theme counts within categories may slightly overlap when responses touch multiple themes; category totals reconcile (40 + 140 + 40 + 41 + 35 = 296).
Allegheny County baselines are approximate (2020 Census, 2024 vote share); for production replace with precise voter-file figures.

12 · Gaps for the next round

Questions for the next listening cycle

Five gaps to close before decisions rest on this dataset alone.

R-leaning sample depth

28 R-leaning responses against ~38% county GOP vote share. Run a targeted round in 15090, 15101, 15238, 15601, 15642. Aim for n=50+.

Latino, Asian, Hispanic depth

Hispanic (n=18) and Asian (n=27) inflated by coordinated cluster. Organic depth on language access, immigration, hate crime is thin.

Dedicated affordability category

"Other" caught 17 cost-of-living responses. Promote affordability to a dedicated category alongside Affordable Housing.

Youth voice (18–29)

5.7% of responses. Likely platform reach, not disinterest. Add campus and partnered-org listening.

Trust-by-institution mapping

Voters mention URA, PWSA, school boards, Harrisburg, foundations. A 1–10 institution-trust scale would convert qualitative into actionable data.

Counter-mobilization detection

April 22 was a left-leaning push. Expect organized pushes from gun-rights, anti-zoning, school-choice groups too. Run detection continuously.